Why a Study of Texas Schools May Have Shown Us How To Better Measure College ROI

When it comes to college, the national tide has shifted to focus on student outcomes and return on investment (ROI).

More states and the federal government are aligning on making sure that programs eligible for government dollars do no harm to the students who enroll.

With the release of a value-added earnings outcomes study in Texas that measured the economic outcomes of 935,767 students who enrolled in 86 public institutions in Texas between 2008–09 and 2018–19 and pursued a bachelor’s degree, associate’s degree, or certificate, the Postsecondary Commission, which accredits institutions that produce strong economic returns for their students, alongside Mathematica, have made meaningful progress in showing the field how to responsibly and credibly measure ROI (full disclosure: I am on the Postsecondary Commission’s advisory board). The release of the study also shows how much more work governments have to do to create the underlying infrastructure to make this kind of work possible everywhere in the country.

The broader move to focus on higher education outcomes has been a welcome development for a sector that doesn’t boast stellar results.

Nearly 4 in 10 students don’t graduate from four-year schools within six years and, according to research published in 2024 by the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity, nearly a quarter of bachelor’s degrees have a negative ROI; 43 percent of associate degrees have a negative ROI; and 43 percent of master’s degrees have a negative ROI.

And yet the move toward outcomes has remained incomplete.